Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Puck possession vs. Goal scoring players

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    Much debate has risen about the topic of a puck possession player vs. a goal scorer. Although, many people believe that acquiring a goal scorer seems to be the most important item on many GM's lists, should it be the top thing that a team should look at? Fans tend to overlook the background of a goal and just focus on the goal scorer rather than how the play was set up. No one will talk about who exactly carried the puck over the blue line into the offensive zone, but instead they'll zoom in all their attention on the goal scorer and the goal itself. This situation is similar to pitching in baseball. The closing pitcher doesn't earn a save unless he gets support from his starting pitcher, relievers, and ultimately has to get some run support as well, but you get my point. Without the puck moving forward/defenseman gaining the zone, the goal scorer doesn't even get a chance to score. Let's take a closer look at the Top 5 puck possession players in the NHL by looking at their individual Corsi to figure out how much time they held the puck, and then we'll look at the Top 5 goal scorers in the NHL this past season.

Top 5 Puck Possession Players 2012-2013:

1. Max Pacioretty
2. Alex Ovechkin
3. Evander Kane
4. Brendan Gallagher
5. Erik Karlsson

    In this short list, we are already exposed to some great players, as we see Ovechkin, Evander Kane, and Erik Karlsson mentioned above. Am I saying that just because these people are on these lists, they aren't scorers? Not at all! Let's take a look at Ovechkin's stats the past three seasons:


Alex Ovechkin 5v5 EV STR Corsi+Stats:


2010-2011- 85 points, (32G, 53A) 23.290 Corsi
2011-2012- 65 points, (38g, 27A)  21.258 Corsi
2012-2013*- 56 points, (32G, 24 points) 21.687 Corsi

    The asterisk is just to note that it was a shortened season. However, let's take a look at Ovechkin's Corsi the past three seasons. We can obviously see that the 2011-2012 was a down season for Ovechkin as he almost surpassed his point amount the following season as it was a shortened season as well. If we look at the 2010-2011 campaign along with the 2012-2013 campaign, we see that the more involved he is in the point department is direct result from his puck possession numbers. Ovechkin is one of the best players to gain the zone with his speed and stickhandling that is off this planet. The better Ovechkin's puck possession time numbers are, the more the reflect on his individual statistics.

    Let's take a look at another player whose puck possession numbers have simply increased since the day he stepped into the NHL, and that is Erik Karlsson. Let's take a look at his first three seasons in the NHL.


Erik Karlsson 5v5 EV STR Corsi + Stats:



2010-2011- 45 points, (13G, 32A) 12.242 Corsi
2011-2012- 78 points, (19G, 59A) 15.099 Corsi
2012-2013*- 14 points, (6G, 8A)   21.090 Corsi

    The asterisk is because Karlsson suffered that Achilles tendon injury which sidelined him nearly the whole season which is why the point levels are at an extreme low, so for our sake, we'll be mostly looking at the first two seasons. We see the clear difference in points between the 2010-2011 campaign and 2011-2012 as he went on to win the Norris Trophy that season. However, once again his stats between his first two seasons was a direct result of his puck possession abilities. If anyone looked at Erik Karlsson two seasons ago and his role on the Senators, you'd see how much of a PG he actually was. The whole offense revolved around him, and Karlsson made very few mistakes with the puck.

    Now, let's take a look at last season's top goal scorers:

Top 5 Goal Scorers in 2012-2013:

1.Alex Ovechkin (32G)
2. Steven Stamkos (29G)
3. John Tavares (28G)
4. Jeff Carter (26G)
5. Patrick Kane (23G)

    Ovechkin is one of those fortunate ones to make both lists which makes is what makes him an elite hockey player. However, let's take a look at one of the NHL's proven premier goal scorers in Steven Stamkos the past three seasons.

Steven Stamkos 5v5 EV STR Corsi+Stats:

2010-2011 - 50 points, (26G, 24A) 16.244 Corsi
2011-2012 - 63 points, (41G, 22A) 15.079 Corsi
2012-2013 - 30 points, (14G, 16A) 14.511 Corsi

    Stamkos is an interesting case simply because Tampa hasn't been really good which also reflects in Stamkos' performance. Now that Lecavalier is gone, the spotlight is all on him, and with a very quiet offseason for the Lightning, teams will be more aggressive towards Stamkos simply hindering his puck possession abilities. The past three seasons, Stamkos' Corsi on 5v5 has dropped. Could it be just a matter of teams learning his style of play? I believe that it's just that Stamkos is nothing more than a sniper, and has to rely on his teammates to carry it into the zone in order for Stamkos to find the back of the net.


   Ultimately, this brings us back to the big question, who would YOU want on YOUR team? I'm not necessarily saying that all puck possession wingers will turn out to be scorers as well, but they do make teams better without a doubt!

   My 2 cents? As much as I'd love to have that Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, etc. I'd have to say that I would much rather have smaller pieces excel in puck possession and play the background to a potential goal scorer. This league is all about putting the puck into the opponent's net, and keeping pucks out of yours, but how is the puck getting into the offensive zone? Once again, a closing pitcher in baseball cannot earn a save without a little help from his batters and his pitchers, and a goal scorer cannot score without a puck moving forward/defenseman there to help him gain the zone.



Thanks for reading!


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