Worries Galore Part III

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    In Part I and II of Worries Galore, I talked about what the Ottawa Senators needed to address this offseason, and the worries that are looming on the wait for Patrick Wiercioch and Jared Cowen's contract extensions. If you want to find out more, I'll drop the links to both at the bottom. I've talked about this offseason, but there are also many questions left to be resolved in the future.
    As of now, there are nine NHL level players coming off the books, and eleven AHL level players coming off. Let's take a look at the NHL level players coming off next offseason:

- Milan Michalek
- Cory Conacher
- Colin Greening
- James O' Brien
- Matt Kassian
- Chris Phillips
- Joe Corvo
- Eric Gryba
- Robin Lehner

    I'm going to say it straight off the bat. Out of the nine NHL level players coming off the books next offseason, I see only four/five coming back. I personally don't see Kassian coming back. Most of us can probably agree that the Senators are handcuffed with him, and will have to deal with him for one more year before both parties can go their own ways. I don't see Jim O' Brien coming back either considering his lack of play this past season, and I don't see this one being any different barring any injuries. I hope that the Senators don't bring back Chris Phillips, and I don't think they will either. Although, he has been a leader on the Senators for numerous years, he's simply too old and doesn't fit with what Ottawa is trying to do, and his salary isn't Melnyk friendly, so I expect Ottawa to salute him out similar to the way they did to Gonchar. Joe Corvo and Eric Gryba are interesting cases simply because an extension will have to do with how well they play this season. I see Gryba having a slight advantage simply because of his age, and Corvo isn't getting any younger.
   
   So, let's assume the players I just talked about don't return in 2014, you then have:

- Milan Michalek
- Cory Conacher
- Colin Greening
- Robin Lehner
- Eric Gryba*

Milan Michalek:

I think it'll be quite interesting to see what Ottawa does with Michalek. I think that the first half of the season will determine Michalek's future in Ottawa. Michalek has been plagued by injuries the past few seasons especially this offseason has he underwent knee surgery overseas. The reason I say that Michalek has the first half of the season is because if he doesn't come back from injury and plays like the Milan Michalek that Bryan Murray is expecting, then he'll look to deal him by the trade deadline. This could be the time to sell Michalek at a high and bring in some assets. On the other hand, Murray could keep him for the season if healthy and complementing the team well enough to help the Senators make the playoffs. Murray could then keep the scoring winger, and either sign him to an extension or let him walk. I personally think that if it got to this point, Ottawa would let him walk and look at someone younger.

My thoughts: Michalek sticks around for at least a year, and if anything, he gets a 2 year extension at most.

Cory Conacher:

I do believe that Conacher will be back with the team once his contract expires. Conacher, who is set to come off his entry level deal at the end of this upcoming season, will be looking for NHL level money as all rookies who come off their entry level deals. Conacher was acquired at this past season's trade deadline from Tampa Bay for Ben Bishop. You better believe that management will definitely keep a close eye on Conacher to see how he performs. He had a phenomenal start last season leading the way to the Calder Cup before slowing down and paving the way for Jonathan Huberdeau from the Panthers to take the Calder Cup. Conacher did show flashes in Ottawa and is ultimately still a very young player learning the game at the NHL level. There is much more to learn, and who better to learn from than the Jack Adams winner, Paul MacLean.

My thoughts: Cory Conacher re-signs with Ottawa on a deal no more than $2 million AAV. 

Colin Greening:

Similar to Conacher, I also see Colin Greening returning to Ottawa. He likes Ottawa, Ottawa likes him. I don't see Greening's demand for money being a factor in this, and it shouldn't be. Greening has played well in these past two seasons, so I am pretty certain that he'll be back to the team he's played his whole career with.

My thoughts: Colin Greening will be back in Ottawa. However, I don't see the deal being any more than $1.5 million AAV. I could even see Greening taking a pay cut to stay in Ottawa, to be honest. 

Robin Lehner:

Ah, Robin Lehner, the FUTURE of the Ottawa Senators. I think that line in itself should tell you if he will be back in Ottawa or not. Lehner, who is coming off his entry level deal will certainly be asking for more money than all these players listed, as well as he should. His play has been exceptional especially this past season. He's been an anchor in the AHL the past few seasons, and is set to see his role increase as he will officially become the backup to Craig Anderson come October. Lehner is a lock to return to Ottawa, it will just be interesting to see how much Ottawa pays him. Remember, I've said numerous times that goalies are very difficult to predict when it comes to contract negotiations so this situation will be interesting to watch unfold.

My thoughts: Lehner will obviously be back in an Ottawa uniform next season. It will just be interesting to see how much longer the Senators ride Craig Anderson until the Sens turn to Robin Lehner. I see Lehner making anywhere from $3-3.5 million AAV maybe for a length of five seasons?

Eric Gryba:

Like I said before, Gryba is very much in the air, so this season will decide his career in Ottawa. Gryba is still developing but the Senators want to make sure that Gryba is the real deal before they make any further investments into him. All I can say is that, you'll have to sit back and watch how his play transforms as he seeks negotiations.

My thoughts: Gryba returns but in a much lower role than people will expect. I see him no more than a 3rd defensive pairing with glimpses of a 2nd pairing.  I don't see Gryba being signed for anything over $900,000 AAV. He will have to let his play make his case in negotiations. 


Funny part? This is just the Free Agents at the NHL level. The AHL level free agents are another story.  Melnyk has decisions to make. He's tight on money, and there are a lot of players on this roster seeking money. Consider this an easy offseason Ottawa, the real head scratcher is in two years when Ottawa will have players like Bobby Ryan, Jason Spezza, Mika Zibanejad, JG Pageau, Craig Anderson, and all those other good players. Eugene, get ready to pull that wallet out and open the door, the money's knocking!

Worries Galore Part I: http://bit.ly/17pnpgE
Worries Galore Part II: http://bit.ly/122uzcr 



Thanks for reading!